Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook
September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone for markets attempting to determine if this week’s data provided greater clarity for the direction of monetary policy. The August employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, nearly three times the 55,000 consensus, with […]
Fed Signals Patience
August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at the center of monetary policy without committing to specific action at the September meeting. He established a high bar for further easing, emphasizing that the Committee needs clear and sustained evidence that underlying inflation is moving toward […]
Strong Economy Keeps Rates Elevated
August 21, 2026 It was a relatively light week for economic data but intra-day market volatility for fixed income investors remains elevated. The hyperscaler and artificial intelligence (AI) build out continues to garner much attention, and the overall economy is benefitting from the large spending projects being implemented. Notably, regional manufacturing activity was strong in […]
August 14, 2026 Tension in the Middle East was a persistent theme this week. Negotiations between the US and Iran remained at a stalemate while attacks resumed in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, pushing gold and crude oil prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading around $82 per barrel as of […]
Labor Market Softens
August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the month, the first monthly payroll decline in months and a sharp miss against what economists had expected. Meanwhile, oil prices fell as reported progress toward a Strait of Hormuz shipping agreement between Iran and Oman […]
Treasury Yields Rise on Data
July 24th, 2026 A renewed climb in oil prices and firm economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs this week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil moved higher as the ongoing conflict with Iran kept pressure on energy markets, while the July flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) and a sharp drop in weekly […]
Core Inflation Shows Moderation
July 17th, 2026 The week’s marquee economic data releases showed inflation cooling more than expected in June. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.4% on the month and eased to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, was essentially flat on the month and slowed to 2.6% year-over-year, both below consensus. […]
US Economy Shows Signs of Moderation
July 10th, 2026 Economic data releases from the last two weeks have been mixed and market volatility picked up, primarily driven by renewed military strikes in the Middle East as the ceasefire ended and the conflict entered its fifth month. Notably, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices have fallen to $71 per barrel, a decline […]
Energy Pushes CPI Higher
June 12, 2026 Inflation returned to the center of the market narrative this week as the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), released June 10, showed headline prices rising 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace in roughly three years and the first reading above 4.0% since 2023. The figure landed against the backdrop […]
Strong Hiring Supports Growth
June 5, 2026 Employment data from this week reinforced that the US labor market remains on solid footing, pushing US Treasury yields higher. Strong hiring, job openings, and performance in the services and manufacturing sectors reinforced the view that the US economy continues to grow despite elevated energy prices. The conflict with Iran continues to […]