July 24th, 2026
A renewed climb in oil prices and firm economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs this week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil moved higher as the ongoing conflict with Iran kept pressure on energy markets, while the July flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) and a sharp drop in weekly jobless claims pointed to an economy still expanding at a solid pace. The combination lifted yields across the curve and weighed modestly on equities.
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI rose to 53.6 from 51.9, with the Services component climbing to 53.6, comfortably above the 51.5 consensus, while Manufacturing eased to 53.8, just below expectations but still firmly in expansion territory. Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 for the week ended July 18, well below the 210,000 consensus, and continuing claims eased to 1.796 million. In housing, new home sales rose to a 628,000 annualized pace in June, above forecasts, while building permits held near 1.374 million.
Treasury yields rose across the curve on firmer data and higher energy prices. At the time of writing, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed approximately 15 basis points on the week to approximately 4.33%, the 10-year rose approximately 12 basis points to approximately 4.67%, and the 30-year remained above 5% at approximately 5.15%, leaving the 2-year to 10-year spread modestly flatter near 34 basis points at the time of this writing. The S&P 500 was little changed to modestly lower, trading near 7,400, approximately 1% below the all-time high near 7,500 set in late May. WTI crude oil climbed to approximately $90 per barrel, up roughly $8 on the week, with Brent near $98. Gold traded near $4,060 per ounce.
The Chandler team expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to hold the federal funds rate at its current target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at the July 28-29th meeting and through the remainder of 2026, even as the futures market continues to price in at least one possible quarter-point increase this year. Higher oil prices, putting continued upward pressure on inflation, is a key risk to Chandler’s view. Nonetheless, our portfolios remain positioned with an emphasis on safety, liquidity, and disciplined credit risk management.
Next Week: Durable Goods Orders, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Wholesale Inventories, FHFA House Price Index, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decision, MBA Mortgage Applications, Second Quarter Gross Domestic Product (Advance), Personal Income and Personal Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Employment Cost Index, MNI Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Sentiment.
Written by Daniel Delaney, CFA, Deputy Chief Investment Officer