02/09/26: Yields Fall, Growth Outlook Brightens
Volatility picked up across capital markets as US equities and commodities whipsawed while US treasury yields fell throughout the week. Meanwhile, the prospect for positive near-term growth improved according to US purchasing managers. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and services indexes both indicated expansion in January, with the ISM Manufacturing Index rising to 52.6 […]
02/02/26: Fed Holds Rates as Markets Weigh New Data
The market digested a myriad of news this week, with a focus on the Federal Reserve, as well as incoming economic data, Megacap earnings, and a looming partial federal government shutdown. As expected, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate on hold at a target range of 3.50%–3.75% at the January meeting, following three […]
01/26/26: US Growth Steady Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitics continued to dominate headlines and weigh on investor sentiment this week as the US Administration pushed to assert greater control over Greenland. As a result, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where political leaders and captains of industry gather every year, was marked by a confrontational tone although the heated rhetoric eased after […]
01/19/26: Inflation Eases as Housing and Spending Strengthen
Although geopolitical events and challenges to Fed independence made headlines this week, financial markets looked beyond these developments and focused on inflation and the consumer. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in December 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose less than expected at 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.6% year-over-year. […]
01/09/26: Markets React to Policy Moves and Economic Signals
The first full week gave market participants an opportunity to assess slew of incoming economic data. The most notable development was a policy proposal attributed to President Trump for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities to help keep long-term borrowing costs lower, though key details on […]
01/05/26: Economy Grows, But Confidence Weakens
The market digested key economic datapoints in the last two weeks of 2025. The highly anticipated third quarter US GDP estimate came in at 4.3%, the fastest pace in two years and much stronger than Bloomberg consensus expectations calling for 3.3%. The strong print was primarily driven by consumer spending, which accelerated to 3.5% versus […]
12/22/25: Inflation Slows; Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling
Although the data lag from the government shutdown remains a factor, this week provided a slew of catch-up economic data from government sources. Labor market data whipsawed during the shutdown, and inflation trended lower. Inflation came in lower than expected in November, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerating to 2.7% year over year and […]
10/6/2025: U.S. Government Officially Shuts Down
The U.S. federal government officially shut down on October 1st after Congress failed to agree on a funding bill. The debate centers on disagreements over spending priorities, including health care subsidies and Medicaid funding. About 750,000 federal employees considered “non-essential” face temporary furloughs until a deal is reached, while “essential” employees continue working without pay. […]
9/29/2025: Inflation Persists as Growth Surges, but Fed Stays Wary
This week’s key economic data release included the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Core Personal Consumption expenditures (PCE). The closely watched measure came in at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year as expected. The headline PCE deflator was also in-line with expectations up 0.3% for the month and 2.7% for the year. As the Fed […]
9/22/2025: Weekly Economic Update
The Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% to 4.25% at its September meeting, marking the first cut since December 2024. The move was anticipated and signaled the start of a new easing cycle but also revealed divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Chair […]