12/15/25: The Fed Lowers Rates in December
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded their final meeting of the year and reduced the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to an updated range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Although in the weeks leading up to the meeting several Federal Governors expressed skepticism about the need to continue to reduce the policy […]
12/8/25: Bond Yields Rise Amid Fed Independence Concerns
The government shutdown is still causing data availability issues, including no employment report for November which would have been published this Friday. Private payroll data from ADP on Monday provided investors some insight on the employment situation, highlighting job losses of 32,000 in November and adding to concerns over labor market weakness, although we have […]
11/24/25: Consumer Sentiment Dips Amidst Market Uncertainty
U.S. government economic data began to flow again this week after the 43-day shutdown. The September labor report reflected stronger than expected hiring with 119,000 jobs created; however, July and August jobs were revised down by 33,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%, the highest rate since 2021, as more jobseekers entered […]
11/17/25: Government Shutdown Ends; Market Uncertainty Continues
After 43 days, Congress voted to end the longest shutdown in US government history. The end provided a short-lived rally in equity markets; while fixed income market participants, seeking economic clarity, continue to be frustrated by both the lingering effects of the shutdown and this week’s hawkish comments from Fed policy makers. The Bureau of […]
11/10/25: Markets Cautious as Historic Shutdown Continues
Financial markets adopted a cautious tone this week as investors navigated limited visibility into the economy while the federal government shutdown continues, becoming the longest in U.S. history. Normally, the October jobs report would set the tone for growth and policy expectations, but the shutdown postponed its release and left investors without a key gauge […]
10/3/25: Fed Cuts Rates as Government Shutdown Continues
The US Government shutdown has continued into its 31st day (as of 10/31/2025) as pressure on Congress mounts to reach an agreement. The current shutdown is poised to exceed the 35-day impasse that occurred in 2018-19, which holds the record. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and despite the lack of government employment […]
10/27/25: Market Expecting Rate Cuts amid Government Shutdown
The US government shutdown continues, and as of this writing it does not appear there are any discernable efforts taking place to address the impasse within the US congress. Despite the government shutdown, and the dearth of government related economic data, market participants did receive an update on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this morning. […]
10/20/25: Economic Data Delays Continue
An already slow week for economic data, due to the holiday closure on Monday, was inhibited even further as Friday marked the 17th day of the Federal Government shutdown. September inflation data has been delayed as the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—originally slated for release this week—has been postponed until October 24th. The Bureau of Labor Statistics […]
10/13/25: Markets Hold Steady Amid Data Delays
Markets had little economic data to digest this week as the U.S. federal government shutdown continued to delay releases. The preliminary October reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was little changed at 55.0, edging down from 55.1 in September, but exceeding consensus forecasts. Current conditions improved slightly, while future expectations slid, as […]